China’s coercion of Taiwan spells trouble for the island nation of 23 million. But America can help.
A CONCOCTION of the 1970s, the “One-China Policy” stipulates that there is but one country called “China.” Whether that means the People’s Republic of China (i.e., China) or the Republic of China (i.e., Taiwan) is, ostensibly, an open question.
If you’re confused, that’s by design. The official U.S. position regarding Taiwan is often described as “strategic ambiguity.” Taiwan, a free and prosperous democracy, embodies the American ethos of liberal democracy. But China’s economic heft is too big for America to ignore. So strategic ambiguity it is.
If anything, the One-China Policy is a useful mythology. It allows for a bizarre equilibrium whereby other nations can maintain economic ties with both China and Taiwan—without weighing in on the question of which one is the “real” China. Barring a few Chinese missile tests meant to spook Taiwan, the One-China equilibrium has held up reasonably well over the decades.
No longer. Emboldened by a recent Communist Party soirée, Chinese premier Xi Jinping is ramping up the pressure on the tiny island nation. In the past year or so, Mr. Xi has cut off most diplomatic communications with Taiwan. He continues to chip away at the ~20 countries which maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Chinese military jets regularly fly circles around the island. Commercial planes, too, now fly near Taiwan’s perimeter, in violation of an air-safety deal struck in 2015. There are even rumors of Chinese meddling in Taiwanese domestic politics—taking a page out of the Russian playbook.
China must tread carefully when it comes to Taiwan. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act keeps open the flow of American arms to Taiwan. Excessive Chinese saber-rattling could very well provoke a U.S. response. But China has shown itself to be the master at skirting rules and toeing the line.
More nefarious still are China’s efforts to attract Taiwanese professionals. Taiwan’s citizens have been granted expedited work visas. Several provinces are now hiring Taiwanese citizens to work in Chinese state-owned enterprises. Fujian, the province closest to Taiwan, promises to hire 1,000 Taiwanese academics by 2020. The government doles out subsidies to Taiwanese techies in the hopes of luring more in. All this, coupled with Taiwan’s trundling economy, amounts to a Chinese attempt to subvert Taiwan by enticing its people.
What can be done? American military intervention is out of the question, as is voiding the One-China Policy. It is incontrovertible that Taiwan is its own nation, but silly as it may be, recognizing that fact would only muddy the situation further.
Better to reinforce the U.S. commitment to Taiwan. Passing the Taiwan Travel Act, which passed the House last month, would be a start. This bill facilitates travel and communication between high-level Taiwanese and American diplomats, providing a vital channel for dialogue while preserving America’s strategic ambiguity strategy. Moreover, stationing a general on the island would signal to Beijing that America will not abandon Taiwan.
American politicians can play a role, too. Senator Ted Cruz has been one of Taiwan’s staunchest supporters, meeting with the country’s president despite predictable Chinese complaints. When one Chinese diplomat fumed about invading Taiwan, Mr. Cruz called the comment “absurd, unduly provocative,” adding that it “should be met with laughter and derision.” Senator Marco Rubio has been a consistent ally of Taiwan as well. Open support for Taiwan from a high-profile Democrat would be a welcome gesture, providing moral and psychological support amid the Chinese pressure campaign.
In a better world, there would be no One-China Policy, and China would voluntarily let Taiwan alone. Sadly, this is not yet the case. Until the day that China relents, America should stand resolutely behind Asia’s most robust democracy.
