Ricardo Anaya promises a level-headed approach to crime and corruption. Mexicans should elect him.
MEXICO IS a nation caught between conflicting realities. By global standards, its elections are relatively democratic. Yet Mexico’s political culture is noxious. The media are dominated by political interests, including the government. Corruption is a fact of life. Journalists are murdered regularly, with little legal recourse. Reporting in Mexico is likened to reporting in lawless Afghanistan or war-torn Syria.
The conflicting realities stretch into the economy. Since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (N.A.F.T.A.) went into effect, foreign investment has poured into Mexico and wages have perked up—but only in the north. In the agrarian south, small farmers have been steamrolled by foreign competition. Some speak of a “two-speed” economy: part modern and prosperous, part feeble and poverty-stricken.
Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s president, has tried in earnest to rejigger the Mexican economy. In some ways, he has succeeded. Mr. Peña Nieto subjected public-school teachers to test-based evaluations, sifting out the unqualified. He instituted a partial privatization of the state-owned oil-and-gas titan Pemex, which had long held a wildly inefficient energy monopoly. The Pemex reform attracted billions in fresh capital. Over the medium term, private money will fill up state coffers and drive down electricity prices for everyday Mexicans, assuming no interruption.
Alas, assuming no interruption would be foolish. Polling data on Mexico’s upcoming presidential election show Andrés Manuel López Obrador (or “AMLO”), a left-wing populist, leading the pack. AMLO wants to undo Mr. Peña Nieto’s educational reforms, and has compared his privatization of Pemex to robbery. AMLO pledges to hold a national referendum on renationalizing Pemex. He seems to think the right way to help Mexican farmers is with price controls, which are wasteful and deprive the poor.
AMLO has been rejected by the Mexican electorate twice before, once in 2006 and again in 2012. But his latest national agenda is ostensibly more moderate than in elections past—though much of his “moderation” is lip service. Despite his regressive and counterproductive policies, AMLO claims to be the candidate of the “forgotten Mexico.” Parallels to Donald Trump are hard to miss.
The Mexican people are hankering for a leftist firebrand in no small part because of Mr. Peña Nieto’s failures. He has done little to remedy crime and corruption, Mexico’s most salient problems. Although his economic reforms were necessary, Mr. Peña Nieto has not addressed the growing chasm of inequality. It doesn’t help that Mr. Peña Nieto’s neighbor to the north disparages Mexico as a pastime. For these reasons, voters, understandably disaffected, have cozied up to AMLO, who at least promises to shake things up.
But there is another way. Ricardo Anaya, the leader of a left-right coalition, trails a fair few points behind AMLO in a poll tracker. Mr. Anaya is a through-and-through institutionalist. He proposes taking on gangs with better intelligence, rather than with brute force. He wants to separate the attorney general’s office from the president’s, which could increase accountability. He looks to lure some of AMLO’s left-leaning voters with a plan to hike the minimum wage, which in Mexico is below the poverty line.
Four months lie in between now and the election. In the intervening period, much could change. Mr. Trump might take a hammer to N.A.F.T.A., wreaking havoc on Mexico’s well-integrated economy. A major bout of gang violence could elevate AMLO. Worryingly, Mr. Anaya has been accused of graft, though the allegations appear politically motivated and poorly founded. Even still, oversold allegations can sink a campaign, as Hillary Clinton discovered in 2016.
The Mexican people deserve a president who understands that populism only hurts those who it strives to help. If his words are any indication, AMLO will harm the economy. His backward-looking policies will undo the crucial progress made under Mr. Peña Nieto. Far from being tough on corruption, AMLO’s proposal to slash already-low pay for senior bureaucrats is bound to invite further avarice.
Mr. Anaya may well fail to solve Mexico’s deepest ailings, much as Mr. Peña Nieto before him. But he is worth taking a chance on. We do not have a vote in the July 1st election. But if we did, it would go to the shrewd Mr. Anaya.
